As the U.S. election approaches, predictions are pointing to a potential deadlock with a razor-thin margin between the candidates. However, a recent NBC News national poll has shown significant growth in support for Kamala Harris. The poll places her ahead of Republican candidate Donald Trump by 5 points among registered voters, with Harris at 49% and Trump at 44%. This marks the first time NBC News has given Democrats a clear edge in the race for the White House.
According to the poll, Harris’s popularity has surged by 16 points since July, marking the largest increase for any politician in NBC’s polling history since George W. Bush’s post-9/11 surge. The pollster attributes this rise to Harris’s perceived competence and her physical and mental fitness for the presidency. “This election has shifted dramatically in Harris’ favor,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the survey. “Where Biden once faced strong headwinds, Harris now finds a clearer path to victory.”
Despite Harris’s gains, Trump still holds an edge on economic issues such as inflation and immigration. Republican pollster Bill McInturff cautioned against counting Trump out, noting that he has previously regained support from wavering Republicans, as seen in the 2016 and 2020 elections. “We’ve seen this movie before,” McInturff said, suggesting that Trump’s base could still rally behind him.
The poll indicates that 71% of voters have already made up their minds, with only 11% open to changing their vote. While Harris leads on issues like abortion rights, temperament, and protecting immigrant rights, Trump remains strong on the economy, border security, and cost of living.
Key Shifts Among Young and Black Voters
The poll reveals notable shifts in key voting blocs following Joe Biden’s exit from the race. Among young voters aged 18 to 34, Harris now leads by 23 points, 57% to 34%, compared to a near tie between Biden and Trump in July. The support from Black voters has also increased dramatically, with Harris now enjoying a 78-point lead, up from Biden’s 57-point advantage in July.
Additionally, Harris has widened her lead among female voters, securing a 21-point advantage compared to Biden’s 11-point lead. Support from Latino voters remains steady, with Harris leading Trump 54% to 35%, similar to Biden’s previous margin. Among independents, however, Biden’s previous 9-point lead has softened, reflecting some uncertainty within this group.
