As the 2024 US elections approach, scheduled for November 5, well-known American election forecaster Allan Lichtman, often referred to as the “Nostradamus of U.S. presidential elections,” has predicted that Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, will secure victory and become the next US President. Despite Democrats losing the incumbency edge—one of the 13 factors Lichtman uses in his predictions—he believes Harris is on course to defeat Donald Trump.
In a unique seven-minute video where he is seen running alongside senior athletes aiming for the 2025 national senior Olympics, the 77-year-old Lichtman confidently stated, “Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States—at least that’s my prediction.”
Lichtman’s forecasts rely on a set of true/false statements, bypassing traditional polling trends. He accurately predicted Donald Trump’s 2016 win and warned after the first 2024 debate that President Biden’s potential withdrawal could be disastrous for Democrats, stirring debates among political analysts like Nate Silver.
Out of 13 crucial factors, Lichtman found eight favoring Harris. These include the absence of a strong third-party candidate following Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s exit, positive economic indicators, significant legislative accomplishments by the Biden administration, and a lack of major scandals or social unrest involving the White House. Additionally, Harris faced no serious competition for her party’s nomination, with rivals rallying behind her before the Democratic National Convention.
Even if Trump were to gain support on two foreign policy fronts, Lichtman’s formula suggests it wouldn’t be enough for him to win. Interestingly, the only election Lichtman has misjudged in the last 10 cycles was the contested 2000 race between George W. Bush and Al Gore.
