Political strategist Prashant Kishor has outlined significant changes expected in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s anticipated third term. Speaking with India Today, Kishor suggested that the new administration would introduce bold policies, including potentially placing petroleum under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and tightening the financial autonomy of states. He predicts that Modi 3.0 will commence with dramatic reforms aimed at centralizing power and resources.
Kishor, who was instrumental in Modi’s 2014 election victory, foresees a decisive shift in the anti-corruption strategies of the government. He anticipates a more concentrated control of power at the Centre, which could lead to reduced financial freedom for states. According to Kishor, states might see their revenue sources—currently dependent on petroleum, liquor, and land—subject to greater central oversight. He suggested that including petroleum under GST, despite state opposition due to potential revenue losses, could be a notable change.
Currently, petroleum products are taxed outside the GST framework, facing VAT, Central Sales Tax, and Central Excise Duty instead. Bringing petroleum under GST could significantly alter state revenue dynamics, making them more reliant on the central government for tax revenue distribution. Kishor believes this move, if implemented, will reshape the financial landscape between the Centre and the states, increasing central authority over state finances.
In addition to financial reforms, Kishor predicts a delay in resource transfers from the central government to the states and stricter enforcement of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) norms, which set limits on state budget deficits. This could further restrict states’ fiscal flexibility, compelling them to align more closely with central policies and priorities.
On the international front, Kishor anticipates that India will adopt a more assertive and possibly aggressive diplomatic stance. He notes that there is a growing perception among diplomats of an increasingly bold Indian foreign policy. This shift could reflect India’s strengthened position on the global stage, driven by the Modi administration’s emphasis on a robust and self-assured international presence.
Overall, Prashant Kishor’s predictions highlight a potential centralization of power and resources under Modi’s third term, coupled with significant financial and diplomatic shifts. These changes are expected to redefine the relationship between the Centre and the states and enhance India’s assertiveness in global affairs.
